Is Kibera, Africa"s So Called Biggest Slum a Self Fulfilling Prophecy?
The one common thread that runs through the spin cycle is the cryptic question about "who benefits?" - when negative, inaccurate and in most cases, misleading arguments carry the day.
Take Kibera for example.
Rightfully or wrongly, this stretch of Nairobi real estate that spans over 2.
5 sq km (give or take a football pitch either side) - has garnered a world-wide reputation for being the largest slum in Africa with at least 1 million residents.
A first assumption you'd make is that the government in Kenya or some form of reliable public body or statistics agency actually did a head count and figured out that the number of folks who live in Kibera topped 1 million.
The veracity of such an assumption is not lost to those wondering whether you can fit that number of folks in an area (which can be measured accurately and not estimated) the size of Kibera.
In mid 2008, Stefano Marras, a mapping specialist, took the plunge and decided to scientifically quantify a reliable estimate of Kiberas population.
Marras wrote in summary to his mapping exercise "...
looking upon the data reported, and considering that type, dimension and distribution of the buildings observed in Kianda is typically the same in the whole slum of Kibera, it is possible to make a guess about the numerical dimension of its population.
Considering that its area of Kibera is set between 2.
3 and 2.
5 sq km, the total population living in the slum can be most likely estimated between 220,000 and 250,000 people" .
So why the over-inflated estimates of those confined to the hardship of slum dwelling in Africa's most renowned informal settlement.
Conventional wisdom would suggest there are many parties that benefit.
Politicians for one, have become seasoned tacticians unmoved about using the plight of poverty stricken slum dwellers to further their own political ambitions.
Kenyan politicians don't hold this monopoly - look around at the influence of politics in the slums of Asia or even right across the world in South America - say in Venezuela where Hugo Chavez enjoys absolute support for his socialist agenda from majority of their slum dwelling population.
Other players who benefit from the inflated population estimates are NGOs, the manifestation of the cynicism and fallacy that is the aid and development industry.
The survival of this industry (clearly a topic for another article on its own merit) is dependent on the perpetuation of poverty at its highest extremes.
The sustainability of this poverty helps fund mortgages and lifestyles for development experts on all manner of disciplines who believe it's their destiny to change the world.
It can also be argued that the residents of Kibera themselves may benefit from the inflated figures as they solicit sympathy and funding from aid sources to celebrities of the ilk of Chris Rock and Simon Cowell.
It's a twisted interpretation of the tenets of Darwin's survival of the fittest theory.
Short of getting a job - the aid and development industry will fund this madness.
The media are also complicit in this spin of convenience.
Some Kenyan journalists (if I can be allowed to qualify this generalization) in particular are known for their misguided enthusiasm and sensationalism in their reporting of events - so the accolade of having 'Africa's biggest slum' falls right down their street.
Truth is - Kibera is probably just Nairobi's biggest slum.
And if you think about it, a similar exercise would probably factor down the population estimates of other Nairobi slums.
One interesting question is about how money flows within the slum.
Marras estimates that over 96% of folks in Kianda area alone pay rent to someone - and this easily aggregates to a monthly income of around £45,000.
Even in Europe, that is a windfall - and the capital gains tax alone on this income can fund some basic public services in the area.
Who gets this money? Renato Sesana, an Italian journalist and missionary observes:
"Marras did this work with funds from a scholarship, using an amount that in the average project financed by any European country would fall under "contingencies" or "stationery".The thing is this though - the more the unchallenged and convenient assumptions go on about Kibera, the faster the slum realities become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Yet he has accomplished a task of great value and that is scientifically outstanding, such that from now onwards, no government or NGO project conducted in Kibera can afford to disregard his data".