Laying Favourites - Part 5

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Following on from laying favourites, articles 1 through 4, we continue to look at factors which need to be taken into account to help you profit from laying favourites.
I have always maintained horse racing is just that, and is not jockey racing.
However, laying favourites is one of the times you need to look at the jockey booking.
Or to be more precise the strike rate relationship between trainer and jockey.
There is a reason why one jock will have, say; a 7% strike rate when riding for a trainer and another will have a 25% strike rate.
Some trainers will book certain jockeys for their horses when they feel the horse has a big chance.
On the other hand, if the horse has some or little chance the ride will often go to the jockey who rides fewest winners - by definition...
Beaten favourites last time out There maybe many reasons for a horse being beaten as favourite last time.
But it's always worth looking at horses who are again starting favourite.
The first thing you must do is analyse it's last race, ask yourself some questions; such as:
  • Why didn't the horse win it's last race?
  • What is different about today's race?
  • Is today's race stronger or weaker?
Has the horse been a beaten favourite more than once before? Quite often the beaten favourite will start as fav or 2nd fav in it's next race - this is a good opportunity to spot false favourites.
Very often, punters will be trying to get their money back; forcing the price down - making it in essence, a false favourite.
This is where the percentage chance of wining is lower than its price would indicate.
Last time winners This is another good source of laying favourites.
But again , you need to analyse its last race.
Ask your self some questions:
  • Is this race harder or easier than its last race?
  • Is the trip and race conditions similar or the same as last time?
  • Is the make-up of the race similar or very different?
Its also important to look at the horses lifetime form, in particular, look to see if the horse has won 2 races on the trot in the past - if it hasn't, it's certainly worth considering as a lay - also look to see if it was a beaten favourite or 2nd favourite after it had won...
Wrong trip For a horse to win a race, it usually has to have optimum conditions.
And correct trip/distance is a vital condition.
Look at the horses form, if it has run but hasn't won over the distance before, look further into its form and the races concerned.
If it has failed to win over certain trips in the past what's different about today's race? I do hope you have found this series of articles on laying favourites useful.
There is one more article to come which will cover handicaps, odds-on favourites and more.
Source...
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