Guidelines for Post-Flop Poker Outs
Knowing outs, probabilities and odds in poker is critical if you are going to play successfully over time. Holdem is a strategic game played with incomplete information. Not all information needed in holdem is directly knowable, however, the ability to calculate your odds and weigh those odds against the price being offered by the pot is completely within your grasp. Gut feelings are all you have if you don't have a good grip on holdem math.
If you incorporate these few key approaches in your game you gain an edge; frankly, there is nothing complicated about them either.
1. Counting Outs
2. Estimating Probabilities
3. Counting the Pot
4. Estimating Pot Odds
Let's look at each of these a bit deeper.
Counting Outs
Outs are cards that essentially improve your hand when they hit. Distinguishing between outs with great value and those with little value is an central skill. Ranging in worth from making the nuts to fashioning second best, outs are erratic beasts. So keep in mind the comparative value of your outs; if you have an up and down straight draw and you hit the bottom straight you may just have made second best, ouch!
The fact remains that it is rather straightforward to count outs. Simply realize which cards, if any, will improve your hand and how many of those cards are still concealed to you. If you have a pair you have 2 outs to a set or quads. Flush draws have 9 outs, an up and down straight 8 outs and a gutshot straight draw only 4.
Estimating Probabilities
Accurate calculation of probabilities is convoluted, not really a task many of us can accomplish at the holdem table. There are two solutions: 1) rely on memorized probabilities and odds for normal situations, or 2) use the Rule of 4 and 2 to estimate your probabilities.
The Rule of 4 and 2 is a simple multiplication problem. With two cards to come, multiply your outs by 4. The answer is a close estimation of the probability of completing your hand. With only one card to come multiply your outs by 2 and you get a new probability. Convert the answer to a statement of odds and you are good to go.
Counting the Pot
Not knowing how much money is in the pot within a respectable margin of error makes it inconceivable to figure the price being offered by the pot. In limit holdem I simply count the small bets already made and use that number as a guideline. In no-limit holdem, because the bet sizes are not fixed, I estimate the pot size by first knowing the price of a round of poker by adding the blinds and antes together. That is the size of the pot before any bets are made. Then I add each bet to the opening pot during preflop action. Post flop, I can then estimate the size of the pot based on the fraction of the pot being bet. If the pot, for example, is $30 and someone bets $15 I know that a bet of half the pot is made and that the pot is now $45.
Estimating Pot Odds
Pot odds are a function of the size of the pot relative to the size of the bet required to make a call. If, for example, the pot is $45 and I must bet $15 to call, the pot is offering 3:1. If the bet is $2 and the pot is $10 then the odds being offered by the pot are 5:1.
If I know my odds and I can reasonably estimate the price being offered by the pot I am in a better position to decide whether or not to continue in the hand.
If you incorporate these few key approaches in your game you gain an edge; frankly, there is nothing complicated about them either.
1. Counting Outs
2. Estimating Probabilities
3. Counting the Pot
4. Estimating Pot Odds
Let's look at each of these a bit deeper.
Counting Outs
Outs are cards that essentially improve your hand when they hit. Distinguishing between outs with great value and those with little value is an central skill. Ranging in worth from making the nuts to fashioning second best, outs are erratic beasts. So keep in mind the comparative value of your outs; if you have an up and down straight draw and you hit the bottom straight you may just have made second best, ouch!
The fact remains that it is rather straightforward to count outs. Simply realize which cards, if any, will improve your hand and how many of those cards are still concealed to you. If you have a pair you have 2 outs to a set or quads. Flush draws have 9 outs, an up and down straight 8 outs and a gutshot straight draw only 4.
Estimating Probabilities
Accurate calculation of probabilities is convoluted, not really a task many of us can accomplish at the holdem table. There are two solutions: 1) rely on memorized probabilities and odds for normal situations, or 2) use the Rule of 4 and 2 to estimate your probabilities.
The Rule of 4 and 2 is a simple multiplication problem. With two cards to come, multiply your outs by 4. The answer is a close estimation of the probability of completing your hand. With only one card to come multiply your outs by 2 and you get a new probability. Convert the answer to a statement of odds and you are good to go.
Counting the Pot
Not knowing how much money is in the pot within a respectable margin of error makes it inconceivable to figure the price being offered by the pot. In limit holdem I simply count the small bets already made and use that number as a guideline. In no-limit holdem, because the bet sizes are not fixed, I estimate the pot size by first knowing the price of a round of poker by adding the blinds and antes together. That is the size of the pot before any bets are made. Then I add each bet to the opening pot during preflop action. Post flop, I can then estimate the size of the pot based on the fraction of the pot being bet. If the pot, for example, is $30 and someone bets $15 I know that a bet of half the pot is made and that the pot is now $45.
Estimating Pot Odds
Pot odds are a function of the size of the pot relative to the size of the bet required to make a call. If, for example, the pot is $45 and I must bet $15 to call, the pot is offering 3:1. If the bet is $2 and the pot is $10 then the odds being offered by the pot are 5:1.
If I know my odds and I can reasonably estimate the price being offered by the pot I am in a better position to decide whether or not to continue in the hand.
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