Type 2 Diabetes - Is It Possible to Predict Who Will Develop Diabetes?

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Preventing Type 2 diabetes is certainly one way to live a long and healthy life.
A new and innovative way of predicting the risk of development of the condition, is by measuring neck size.
In a study published in the journal Clinical Endocrinology in July 2012, researchers at the State University in Sao Paulo, Brazil, compared neck size with known diabetic risk factors in:
  • 1,053 adults between 18 and 60 years of age.
Those with the largest neck measurement were found to have:
  • the highest blood sugar level,
  • highest insulin levels, and
  • the greatest resistance to insulin, the cause of Type 2 diabetes.
Risk factors for diabetes are well-known, and members of the Niigata University Faculty of Medicine in Japan have developed a scoring system to judge the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes.
Their study, published in the journal Diabetolgica in September 2012, included:
  • 7,654 non-diabetic participants between the ages of 40 and 75.
The scoring system included information on:
  • age,
  • gender,family history,
  • smoking,
  • body mass index,
  • fasting blood sugar, and
  • hemoglobin A1c.
Putting all the factors together yielded a score that predicted the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes over a 5 year period.
After 5 years it was found the score was about 80 per cent accurate.
Most of the above factors are part of a routine medical history and physical examination.
Hemoglobin A1c is normally measured only in people known to have diabetes, as a means of assessing their blood sugar control.
With more emphasis on prevention, it could well become a screening test as well.
Another study, published in August 2012 in the journal Clinical Epidemiology, also looked at the possibility of predicting Type 2 diabetes, using a slightly different approach.
Investigators at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo looked at risk factors in a population of:
  • 109,796 individuals between the ages of 40 and 45,
over a period of 5 years.
Body mass index, blood fats, cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood sugar, blood pressure and age were taken into account.
The most important risk factors were found to be:
  • body mass index,
  • blood fats, and
  • blood pressure.
From this information it was concluded weight, blood pressure, and blood fats should all be improved to prevent the development of Type 2 diabetes in middle-aged people.
One day it could be possible to predict who is likely to get this form of diabetes by analysing genes.
According to an article published in the journal Diabetologia, in October 2012, progress has been made in identifying genes associated with Type 2 diabetes.
So far there is no genetic test with good predictive value, but the work continues.
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