In politics, there are two types of long-shots. There are long-shots with no money, no campaign infrastructure and no chance to win, period. Then there are the long shots who can raise money, have a solid campaign team and, with the help of a perfect storm, could pull out a victory. They could also lose by 20 points, but at least there is some reasonable expectation a competitive race will result.


(In other words, forget New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. We might field candidates, but honestly, why?). Here are two candidates who fit into the "Underdog, but, Just Maybe" category.

Monica Wehby - Oregon

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election since 1988 and have held four of the five congressional districts for most of the last two decades. We placed Oregon in "safe" status for the Democrats as incumbent Jeff Merkley was one of the few on the left to receive that distinction. (Meanwhile, most Republican incumbents are looking pretty safe.) And while there was always some lingering hope for Republicans to maybe find a way to be competitive in Oregon, the general consensus was that resources would be better spent targeting the many other races where Republicans had much better odds. But perceptions are starting to change on the race and the left may quickly find itself with yet another race to defend that they once felt was safe.

So, why is Oregon ripe for a GOP upset?

First, let's take a look at incumbent Jeff Merkley. In 2008, he won his first term with a less than 49% of the vote as a Constitution Party candidate stripped away more than 5% of the votes from the Republican, who wound up with 46%. Keep in mind that this was with Obama pulling in close to 20% in the state. Without Obama's coattails, there probably is no Senator Merkley to begin with. After getting pulled to victory in 2008, he hasn't really established himself since. While polling has been scant, one poll showed Merkley with just a 39% favorable rating, with 32% unfavorable and a quite-high 30% unsure. Now, there is no President Obama - whose margin of victory dipped 5 points in Oregon in 2012 - on the ballot. There's also Obamacare, which remains underwater statewide.

Then there is Cover Oregon, the state-run Obamacare exchange that spent over $250M of taxpayer money on a website that failed to sign-up a single person online. They eventually had to give up and were forced to join the much maligned federal exchange. Now the GOP just needs a candidate. Enter children's brain surgeon Monica Wheby. After swamping her primary opponents in fundraising, the little-known candidate launched an add that gained nationwide attention for it's positive message. Keeping up the momentum, a Super PAC quickly jumped into the race in support of Wehby. While Wheby has trailed Merkley in the polls, much of that has to do with lack of name recognition (roughly 80% are unfamiliar with her.) That will change and Wheby is just the sort of Republican that Oregon could side with.

Ed Gillespie - Virginia

Republicans should be depressed that Virginia is on the list of states that are long-shot bids. Before 2008, the GOP had won every presidential contest since 1952, with JFK's 1960 victory the lone exception. The GOP held both US Senate seats as recently 2007, now they hold neither. But not all hope is lost. The GOP actually holds an 8-3 congressional delegation advantage, a reversal from the Democrats 6-5 advantage following the 2008 elections. The GOP is also holds a 2-1 advantage in the Virginia House of Delegates, so not all hope is lost.

Democratic incumbent Mark Warned will still have to contend with his support of Obamacare, but he remains popular in the state regardless of that vote. Warner's likely Republican challenger, Ed Gillepsie, will definitely have his work cut out for him. But like we said earlier, in a perfect storm...

So, why does Ed Gillepsie have a shot? The off-election year helps, and poll after poll has shown that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are. Gillepsie has proven to be a very capable fundraiser, having raised over $2M in the early stages of his campaign. While that's still a fraction of what Warner has raised over the years, that sort of money is what Gillespie - who like Wehby also lacks significant name ID - will need to be competitive.