Counting Your Outs
You hold the 5d-6d and the flop is Qd-4c-3d. You have a big drawing hand with a backdoor flush draw and an up and down straight draw draw. Clearly you do not have the best hand at the moment. At this point in time any pair has you beaten as does anyone holding Ax, especially if the second card is a big one like K, Q, J or T. Your hand is too big to lay down but you are a dog to hit either the straight or the flush. What do you do? When you are behind it is absolutely necessary to accurately count your outs, the cards that help in making your hand. Notice the word accurately. It is a mistake to over estimate your outs as much as it is a mistake to underestimate them.
Straightforward Counting of Outs
In the example above you clearly do not have the best hand at the moment. At the moment your five high is quite weak but there are a number of cards that will almost certainly give you the best hand. Any deuce (4 cards) or any seven (4 cards) give you a straight which should be the best hand at the moment. In addition, 9 diamonds complete your flush draw but since the 2d and the 7d have already been counted in the straight draw you must reduce the count to 7 because double counting simply isn't accurate. This means that you have 15 outs that complete your hand that almost always will be the best hand possible on the river. If you hit the seven on the turn you have the nut straight at that moment given the board texture. If you hit a diamond on the turn your flush, while not the nuts, is most likely the best hand at the moment. No other cards help your hand.
Counting Outs is not Always Straightforward
Counting outs is rarely simple. More often than not, you are not drawing to the nuts. This means that even if you hit your hand you may still be second best. Many times I have hit a small straight only to be beaten by an opponent who has a higher straight. Let's look at an example. You hold a Qh-Jh and the board reads 9h-8s-4d-3s. In this case 4 tens complete a straight but only three fill in the nuts because the Ts puts three spades on the board and while it makes your straight, it also may complete a flush which has you beaten. In addition any queen or any jack gives you top pair, but again, the Qs or the Js may complete a flush which beats any pair. So in reality you must remove from your count any spade from your potential outs. So you have 3 tens, 2 queens and 2 jacks that potentially give you the best hand, 7 outs. Cards that improve your hand but do not necessarily give you the best possible hand are partial outs and must be discounted when you are counting your outs.
When counting outs it is absolutely necessary to consider not only your own hand but the possible hands your opponent may hold. A careful analysis of the board texture provides a strong clue as to the strength of your draw and the likelihood that your hand, if made, will be second best. For example, you hold 6h-7h with a board of 8d-9h-Qd-4c. In this case the board is highly textured. There are potential straight draws and a diamond flush draw available. Any five helps your hand with the exception of the 5d (3 outs) as does any ten except the Td (3 outs) but even if you make your straight (either one will do) someone holding a TJ has a higher straight and you were, in fact, drawing dead. There were no cards that could help your hand. If a diamond hits on the river you most certainly are beaten as well, even if that diamond completes your straight. Rather than count 6 outs in this case because they are all partial outs you must discount them by about half so your 6 outs are reduced to between 2 outs and 4 outs. Discounting partial outs too much means you will fold too often but not discounting them enough means that you will stick around too much. Either mistake costs you money.
Using your Outs as a Predictor of Success
The rule of Four and Two suggests that with two cards to come if you multiply your outs by four you will arrive at a very close estimate of your percentage of completing your hand. With one card to come you must reduce the multiplier to two to come close to estimating your odds. If you have a flush draw with two overcards to the board with two cards to come you have 15 outs. Multiply 15 x 4 and you get 60%. A 6 in 10 chance of success or 1.6:1 against. If you have 15 outs with only one card to come then your chances shrink to 30% or 3.4:1 against. Comparing your odds to the price the pot is offering for you to call a bet determines whether or not a call is profitable. If the total pot is $100 and a call costs you $25 the pot is offering you 4:1 odds. If your actual odds are smaller than the pot odds then a call is warranted, if not then a fold is in order.
Counting outs with accuracy is critical in determining whether or not you are getting the right price to call with a drawing hand. If the pot is offering 4:1 and your odds are 5:1 then you must fold. If you don't count outs accurately then you could over or under estimate your chances for success which translates into a mistake and a loss of profits.
Straightforward Counting of Outs
In the example above you clearly do not have the best hand at the moment. At the moment your five high is quite weak but there are a number of cards that will almost certainly give you the best hand. Any deuce (4 cards) or any seven (4 cards) give you a straight which should be the best hand at the moment. In addition, 9 diamonds complete your flush draw but since the 2d and the 7d have already been counted in the straight draw you must reduce the count to 7 because double counting simply isn't accurate. This means that you have 15 outs that complete your hand that almost always will be the best hand possible on the river. If you hit the seven on the turn you have the nut straight at that moment given the board texture. If you hit a diamond on the turn your flush, while not the nuts, is most likely the best hand at the moment. No other cards help your hand.
Counting Outs is not Always Straightforward
Counting outs is rarely simple. More often than not, you are not drawing to the nuts. This means that even if you hit your hand you may still be second best. Many times I have hit a small straight only to be beaten by an opponent who has a higher straight. Let's look at an example. You hold a Qh-Jh and the board reads 9h-8s-4d-3s. In this case 4 tens complete a straight but only three fill in the nuts because the Ts puts three spades on the board and while it makes your straight, it also may complete a flush which has you beaten. In addition any queen or any jack gives you top pair, but again, the Qs or the Js may complete a flush which beats any pair. So in reality you must remove from your count any spade from your potential outs. So you have 3 tens, 2 queens and 2 jacks that potentially give you the best hand, 7 outs. Cards that improve your hand but do not necessarily give you the best possible hand are partial outs and must be discounted when you are counting your outs.
When counting outs it is absolutely necessary to consider not only your own hand but the possible hands your opponent may hold. A careful analysis of the board texture provides a strong clue as to the strength of your draw and the likelihood that your hand, if made, will be second best. For example, you hold 6h-7h with a board of 8d-9h-Qd-4c. In this case the board is highly textured. There are potential straight draws and a diamond flush draw available. Any five helps your hand with the exception of the 5d (3 outs) as does any ten except the Td (3 outs) but even if you make your straight (either one will do) someone holding a TJ has a higher straight and you were, in fact, drawing dead. There were no cards that could help your hand. If a diamond hits on the river you most certainly are beaten as well, even if that diamond completes your straight. Rather than count 6 outs in this case because they are all partial outs you must discount them by about half so your 6 outs are reduced to between 2 outs and 4 outs. Discounting partial outs too much means you will fold too often but not discounting them enough means that you will stick around too much. Either mistake costs you money.
Using your Outs as a Predictor of Success
The rule of Four and Two suggests that with two cards to come if you multiply your outs by four you will arrive at a very close estimate of your percentage of completing your hand. With one card to come you must reduce the multiplier to two to come close to estimating your odds. If you have a flush draw with two overcards to the board with two cards to come you have 15 outs. Multiply 15 x 4 and you get 60%. A 6 in 10 chance of success or 1.6:1 against. If you have 15 outs with only one card to come then your chances shrink to 30% or 3.4:1 against. Comparing your odds to the price the pot is offering for you to call a bet determines whether or not a call is profitable. If the total pot is $100 and a call costs you $25 the pot is offering you 4:1 odds. If your actual odds are smaller than the pot odds then a call is warranted, if not then a fold is in order.
Counting outs with accuracy is critical in determining whether or not you are getting the right price to call with a drawing hand. If the pot is offering 4:1 and your odds are 5:1 then you must fold. If you don't count outs accurately then you could over or under estimate your chances for success which translates into a mistake and a loss of profits.
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