New Hampshire is once again scheduled to hold the "first in the nation" primary of the 2016 Republican presidential primary. It is the second contest overall, following the Iowa caucuses, and it is scheduled to be held in early February.  Like Iowa, New Hampshire is often the place where presidential ambitions die. In 2012, three of the seven candidates (Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and Michele Bachmann) had dropped out after the first two contests.


In general, most candidates tend to focus their attention on one of the two early states rather than try to win both.

No modern-era candidate has won the GOP nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire, but no non-incumbent presidential candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire over the last 4 decades. Even as George W. Bush was steamrolling the competition in the 2000 primaries he managed to lose New Hampshire to John McCain. In the last three open-seat presidential contests, New Hampshire has tended to select the more establishment candidate as a counterbalance to the more socially conservative candidates who have taken Iowa. Like Iowa, New Hampshire is less about the actual number of delegates won, and more about determining who has the momentum heading into the rest of the primary schedule.

Recent New Hampshire Winners

2012 - Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary over runner-up Ron Paul, who enjoyed a healthy bump from non-traditional Republican voters who had little else to do that day.

Romney won the nomination but lost the general election to Barack Obama.

2008 - John McCain topped a crowded field and countered Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa. McCain went on to win the nomination but was greatly outspent and lost the general election.

2000 - John McCain won George W. Bush, who had previously won Iowa and was otherwise unstoppable. Bush went on to win the White House over Al Gore.

Determining who has a shot in New Hampshire isn't an easy thing to do. Does New Hampshire simply gravitate towards more moderate candidates? Do they vote for a candidate whom they determine is "the most electable" candidate? Or do they select a candidate who didn't win in Iowa to keep things going a little longer? Looking at the past three cycles, there really is no clear trend but one: candidates who skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire, do well. (The same is true of those who skip Iowa.) And thus, Jon Huntsman who let everyone know he was placing all of his efforts in winning Iowa was able to get 17% of the vote despite not registering in Iowa, and despite being an underwhelming candidate all around.

Top Candidates in New Hampshire

A handful of candidates seem highly likely to be competitive should they run. Perhaps under-performing in early polls is the establishment pick Jeb Bush. Despite the high name recognition, donor class backing, and being on a fast and furious fundraising and adviser-collecting rampage, he hasn't hit big numbers in the state. While he remains in the top-tier, the early figures are alarming given the relative lack of establishment-approved candidates. Perhaps holding him down somewhat is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is still polling in the double-digits despite trending downward nationwide.

But other candidates are making it interesting. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has led in a handful of New Hampshire polls to go along with many poll leads in Iowa. Perhaps no potential candidate is equally well-liked by nearly all factions of the Republican Party, including both the tea party and establishment political class. Rand Paul is also a threat, but his best shot is to take a small win in a highly-competitive, vote-splitting field.He has tried to take his father's political brand mainstream and has had some success. However, his foreign policy stances in a year where it will be a major theme will likely be a major setback.

Hard Road Ahead for Social Conservatives

Politicians known for their social stances simply haven't fared well in recent contests. Along with George W. Bush's inability to win the state in 2000, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich both were held to single digits and finished 30 points behind Mitt Romney in 2012. (Santorum had just won Iowa and Newt was about to steamroll through South Carolina.) After a big win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Mike Huckabee fell to a very distant third in New Hampshire. Is it because they are social conservatives or simply didn't try to win the state? With a larger chunk of legitimate candidates possibly running, expect to see many trying to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It would be a major feat if someone pulled it off.

Keep An Eye On

Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina.