The Best Economic Market Timing Indicators
- One of the oldest and most traditional set of indicators used for gauging market direction is the moving averages. These indicators are based on the Standard & Poor's Large Cap 500 Index and use a 50-day and 200-day moving average. The average shows the trend of where the cumulative index data tends to be going on a chart. The actual index position is compared to the average to then determine if a new direction is about to occur. Enough daily shifts in a different direction (up or down) confirm the change is occurring. The moving average method has been used for so long, it is treated as standard for timing indicators.
- One the most related indicators associated with business growth is how many people are employed versus unemployed. The U.S. government regularly tracks this figure through the Labor Department, and it indicates whether businesses are cutting back or growing through new hires. It also indicates if businesses are running lean with part-time hires as opposed to spending significant growth funds with full-time employment.
- Consumers drive much of U.S. business and the market. If consumers start to hold back on buying, use less credit and save more, then businesses will see a direct impact and reduction in revenues, particularly those businesses that sell retail goods and services. Since so many retail businesses also rely on support and secondary businesses to operate, the reduction in consumer buying can also signal a ripple effect across other industries as well. Consumer buying indicators measure growth or retraction regularly to interpret consumer spending and its impact on industries.
- The inflation indicator provides a traditional tracking of the buying power of the U.S. dollar. This has significance in indicating when the dollar is losing the ability to buy goods versus gaining. If the dollar devalues, U.S. goods stand a better chance of selling overseas due to currency exchanges. On the other hand, a strong dollar means the U.S. economy is doing better internally. When inflation is kept tame, the U.S. dollar is scarcer, giving it greater buying power as long as demand for the dollar is high.
- Copper prices and transportation demand both indicate valuable information regarding big business movements in the U.S. market. Copper represents a staple material used in electronics and goods manufacturing. When the price goes up, demand is increasing for manufacturing. Transportation activity signals rises and falls in shipments of goods. When transportation increases, it means increases in sales.
Moving Averages
The Unemployment Rate
Consumer Buying
Inflation
Tracking Copper and Transportation
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