Observing the future of the Canadian economy.
As a Canadian life insurance professional, I consider the last year as one of the most wild in my professional life. Financial crisis shuffled cards all around the world and people ask what is coming next. I have prepared small insight into possible future of Canadian economy
The Canadian economy has been thought of as well prepared for this recession. With lots of natural resources, a quick housing market recovery and a sound financial system, Canada has seen a brief economic recession. It's is still, nonetheless, hazy what the future will bring.
During the last few months there are numerous thoughts on the future of the Canadian economy. Whilst some professionals have accepted our prompt recovery, in the other camp the analysts point out that despite the general retreat of recession in the OECD countries, our cards show we are faking a bit.
The Bank of Canada foreseen 2% growth of GDP for Q3; unhappily August 0.1% contraction was a icy shower. The confident development seen in many industries, have grown due to direct stimulus action. So experts are now looking to the fourth quarter to see some economic growth though there is a difference of views to how much this will be - 3.3% according to the BoC or 2.7% according to OECD experts. "I've been saying for some time that we need to be cautious, that the economy is recovering; the economy has not recovered" said Minister Flaherty. There are quite a few experts that have the same thoughts as him.
Private equity investors are being cautious according to a paper from Reuters; they believe that although the Canadian economy may be resilient, there may be a likelihood of double dipping. Steve Dent of Birch Hill Equity Partners says: "I think people are planning for things to get worse," What's the consequences for Canadians? Buyout investments were a bit over $2.0 billion during the first three quarters, while the equivalent period of 2008 recorded $8.5 billion.
There is little assurance between the experts and the economists. One of Canada's most revered economists believes that, at the moment, there will be false improvements that don't last long and no growth. Conceding the Great Recession was blunted in Canada, he is afraid that the excessive capacities built can be a long term problem. Another point is unemployment: many people will be returning to the work force in the next few years which could lead to a desperate shortage in jobs. To try and avoid the return of the recession, the government needs to be cautious when withdrawing the stimulus. Consumers are watching these negative opinions - the consumer confidence index fell 5.7 points in November from October to 79, still below the pre-crisis level.
Dale Orr Economic Insight has put a warning in it's latest report and is something that should be considered carefully. Even when the GDP gets over zero, it's per capita product is still tested as the Canadian population multiplies at over 1% per annum. With a population growth of 1% last year and a GDP rise of only 0.4% our living standards were already dropping before the recession developed.
The Canadian economy has been thought of as well prepared for this recession. With lots of natural resources, a quick housing market recovery and a sound financial system, Canada has seen a brief economic recession. It's is still, nonetheless, hazy what the future will bring.
During the last few months there are numerous thoughts on the future of the Canadian economy. Whilst some professionals have accepted our prompt recovery, in the other camp the analysts point out that despite the general retreat of recession in the OECD countries, our cards show we are faking a bit.
The Bank of Canada foreseen 2% growth of GDP for Q3; unhappily August 0.1% contraction was a icy shower. The confident development seen in many industries, have grown due to direct stimulus action. So experts are now looking to the fourth quarter to see some economic growth though there is a difference of views to how much this will be - 3.3% according to the BoC or 2.7% according to OECD experts. "I've been saying for some time that we need to be cautious, that the economy is recovering; the economy has not recovered" said Minister Flaherty. There are quite a few experts that have the same thoughts as him.
Private equity investors are being cautious according to a paper from Reuters; they believe that although the Canadian economy may be resilient, there may be a likelihood of double dipping. Steve Dent of Birch Hill Equity Partners says: "I think people are planning for things to get worse," What's the consequences for Canadians? Buyout investments were a bit over $2.0 billion during the first three quarters, while the equivalent period of 2008 recorded $8.5 billion.
There is little assurance between the experts and the economists. One of Canada's most revered economists believes that, at the moment, there will be false improvements that don't last long and no growth. Conceding the Great Recession was blunted in Canada, he is afraid that the excessive capacities built can be a long term problem. Another point is unemployment: many people will be returning to the work force in the next few years which could lead to a desperate shortage in jobs. To try and avoid the return of the recession, the government needs to be cautious when withdrawing the stimulus. Consumers are watching these negative opinions - the consumer confidence index fell 5.7 points in November from October to 79, still below the pre-crisis level.
Dale Orr Economic Insight has put a warning in it's latest report and is something that should be considered carefully. Even when the GDP gets over zero, it's per capita product is still tested as the Canadian population multiplies at over 1% per annum. With a population growth of 1% last year and a GDP rise of only 0.4% our living standards were already dropping before the recession developed.
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