Major League Baseball Betting - Are Betting Trends Useful
A number of people who wager on the outcome of Major League Baseball games utilize MLB betting trends. However, some of these trends can be dangerous if solely relied on.
What is a baseball betting trend? Simply, it's the most recent results of a specific situation.
In Major League baseball betting, in addition to a team betting trend there are also pitcher betting trends. For example, this week the National League the Washington Nationals hosted the St. Louis Cardinals. The pitching matchup in the game has Jaime Garcia pitching for the Cardinals while the Nationals send out their ace Stephen Strasburg.
The offshore betting companies have the Washington Nationals as prohibitive $1.60 betting favorites. There are two reasons why the Nationals are sizable favorites, they are at home and they have Strasburg pitching.
We have databases that provide us with MLB betting trends. One perfect Washington team trend is that the Nationals are a perfect 10-0 after having lost five or six of their past seven games over the last two seasons. An applicable pitching trend in the game is that St. Louis starter Garcia has a 1-8 team start record (how his team has done in his last 9 starts) when pitching on the road against a team like Washington that is hitting.245 or less on the season.
So, a novice sports bettor who utilizes MLB betting trends would favor Washington in this matchup.
However, that's exactly why most sports bettors lose. That's right, the Las Vegas casinos and the offshore sportsbooks rake in millions of dollars per year because the majority of the people who wager on the outcome of MLB games lose money.
The way to make money is to focus on where the money is bet and who is betting it, not on betting trends that over time will revert back to 50%. Our systems provide us with the amount of money being wagered on every baseball game. We also have the ability to see where the €square€ money is being bet who the €sharp€ money is coming in on.
Relating back to the Washington versus St. Louis game, the offshore sportsbooks opened the betting line as mentioned with Washington as a $160 betting favorite. When the game started the betting line had €closed€ with Washington only a $150 favorite despite nearly 72% of the offshore wagers being place on the Nationals. This drop in the betting line is what we call a €reverse line move€.
The lines move at the offshore sportsbooks based on €smart money€ being wagered, not on all money being wagered. The smart money was on the St. Louis Cardinals. There are a number of factors why the smart bettors wagered on St. Louis but the main reason was that the Nationals were what sports bettors refer to as €overlays€.
Washington was an overlay due to Strasburg pitching. The public like to bet on high profile pitchers, but the smart money players like to play against them, of course in the right situation.
This game worked out for the smart money players as the underdog Cardinals beat Strasburg and the Nationals 4-2. If you would have wagered $100 on St. Louis you would have won $150.
So, if you're trying to win betting Major League Baseball don't rely on betting trends. Instead, try to get on the right side of the game.
What is a baseball betting trend? Simply, it's the most recent results of a specific situation.
In Major League baseball betting, in addition to a team betting trend there are also pitcher betting trends. For example, this week the National League the Washington Nationals hosted the St. Louis Cardinals. The pitching matchup in the game has Jaime Garcia pitching for the Cardinals while the Nationals send out their ace Stephen Strasburg.
The offshore betting companies have the Washington Nationals as prohibitive $1.60 betting favorites. There are two reasons why the Nationals are sizable favorites, they are at home and they have Strasburg pitching.
We have databases that provide us with MLB betting trends. One perfect Washington team trend is that the Nationals are a perfect 10-0 after having lost five or six of their past seven games over the last two seasons. An applicable pitching trend in the game is that St. Louis starter Garcia has a 1-8 team start record (how his team has done in his last 9 starts) when pitching on the road against a team like Washington that is hitting.245 or less on the season.
So, a novice sports bettor who utilizes MLB betting trends would favor Washington in this matchup.
However, that's exactly why most sports bettors lose. That's right, the Las Vegas casinos and the offshore sportsbooks rake in millions of dollars per year because the majority of the people who wager on the outcome of MLB games lose money.
The way to make money is to focus on where the money is bet and who is betting it, not on betting trends that over time will revert back to 50%. Our systems provide us with the amount of money being wagered on every baseball game. We also have the ability to see where the €square€ money is being bet who the €sharp€ money is coming in on.
Relating back to the Washington versus St. Louis game, the offshore sportsbooks opened the betting line as mentioned with Washington as a $160 betting favorite. When the game started the betting line had €closed€ with Washington only a $150 favorite despite nearly 72% of the offshore wagers being place on the Nationals. This drop in the betting line is what we call a €reverse line move€.
The lines move at the offshore sportsbooks based on €smart money€ being wagered, not on all money being wagered. The smart money was on the St. Louis Cardinals. There are a number of factors why the smart bettors wagered on St. Louis but the main reason was that the Nationals were what sports bettors refer to as €overlays€.
Washington was an overlay due to Strasburg pitching. The public like to bet on high profile pitchers, but the smart money players like to play against them, of course in the right situation.
This game worked out for the smart money players as the underdog Cardinals beat Strasburg and the Nationals 4-2. If you would have wagered $100 on St. Louis you would have won $150.
So, if you're trying to win betting Major League Baseball don't rely on betting trends. Instead, try to get on the right side of the game.
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