For small business owners along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, I have some good news! Meteorologists at Colorado State University are predicting a milder than normal hurricane season this year. They expect nine named storms to occur, two of which will become hurricanes. The average for the Eastern Atlantic is twelve named storms, seven of which become hurricanes. In case you are wondering, a storm is assigned a name when it becomes a tropical cyclone, a storm that has wind speeds of at least 39 m.p.h.

More good news comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This year the NOAA is introducing new storm surge maps. The agency will produce a map each time it issues a hurricane or tropical storm watch. The maps use four different colors to indicate the expected storm surge, from low (less than 3 feet above ground level) to severe (more than 9 feet above ground level). You can access the maps by clicking on the link below.

Most business owners (and property insurers!) will welcome the prospect of a mild hurricane season. Still, it's important to keep in mind that hurricane predictions are not always accurate. Remember the busy hurricane season we were supposed to have last year? About a year ago, the Colorado meteorologists predicted eighteen named storms, nine of which were supposed to become hurricanes. The NOAA predicted thirteen to twenty named storms, with seven to eleven of those becoming hurricanes. The predictions were way off. In 2013 there were only two hurricanes, neither of which became a major storm.

Why is this year's hurricane season expected to be quieter than normal? The Colorado State meteorologists cite two reasons: a cooling of the tropical Atlantic and the El Nino pattern that is expected to form later this year. El Nino events are associated with fewer windstorms in the Atlantic. It seems that an El Nino pattern suppresses hurricane formation by increasing vertical wind shear. When wind shear increases, the atmosphere is more stable and fewer hurricanes form.

I was surprised to learn that air pollution can also affect  hurricane formation. According to a New York Times article (see link below), pollutants in the air may cool the Atlantic Ocean, suppressing hurricane activity. In his blog at the Weather Underground (see link below), Jeff Masters explains how a massive dust storm in the Sahara Desert last August may have prevented tropical storms from developing in the Atlantic.

Besides less property damage, a mild hurricane season would likely bring an added bonus: lower commercial property insurance rates. In a report called "Marketplace Realities," Willis (a large insurance brokerage) predicts that commercial property rates for "CAT-exposed risks" (meaning risks exposed to catastrophes like hurricanes) will decline by 5 to 10% this year. Willis expects property rates for all other risks to drop by 10 to 15%. The report cites the absence of a major hurricane last year as one reason for the rate drop. Another is widely available reinsurance.

Have you ever wondered by hurricanes are named? The reason is mainly convenience. The naming system facilitates communication of storm information. Multiple storms can occur at once and the naming system ensures that weather experts and the public can distinguish one storm from another.

Hurricanes are generally assigned short, easily-remembered names. Between 1953 and 1978 hurricanes were assigned women's names only. Since then, both male and female names have been used. Names are assigned in alphabetical order. Hurricane names can be reused every six years. However, a name assigned to a very large hurricane (such as Katrina) is not used again.