The Rationale Behind Military Interventions And The Analysis Of Ethnic Conflict Regulation Mechanism
1.
Introduction i.
Conflict situations are situations of dynamic complexity.
In order to solve the problem we will focus on understanding and representing the dynamics of a system.
We will describe interactions among social structures and review processes in complex situations utilizing system dynamics.
We will use causal loops identifying main elements and their interconnections focusing on feedback loops that will help explain system behavior.
ii.
The main purpose of this article is to express as straightforwardly as possible a few key ideas and therefore bring forth more clearly the logic of reasoning, and in particular the assumptions being made concerning the interdependence of social networks and furthermore to exploit the possibilities of the application of system thinking and system dynamics in order to prevent military interventions.
In addition we will question the rationale behind military intervention in the Western Balkans.
iii.
A growing number of international conflicts represent a major challenge to international organizations.
The track record of international community interventions shows that it is necessary to use additional analytical tools to apply different strategies for conflict solving; system dynamics and system thinking.
iv.
Resistance to System Thinking in Conflict Situations is well known: Usually key players in conflicts situations are resistant to system thinking.
The introduction of System Dynamics involves the overcoming of these resistances.
v.
System Dynamics will contribute in increasing the awareness needed to deal with conflict in deal making.
vi.
In order to understand international conflicts in it is important to understand that each conflict is a two stage process consisting of: The Pre-conflict Phase - The interrelationship among actors in a group.
These same actors develop and later on are referred to as opponents.
This model will describe group dynamics and the process from group mobilization to group action.
The Conflict Phase: Once the groups are in action there are different constraints that arise such as internal support, resources and availability of resources, military action, and international military action.
2.
The Pre-conflict Phase vii.
Ethnic Conflicts: Max Weber states that ethnic groups are those human groups that entertain a subjective belief in their common descent...
[which] must be important for the propagation of group formation's.
Group differences then produce different social dynamic patterns.
If this would escalate then we would describe this is an ethnic conflict.
viii.
We will assume that ethnic identity is not changed often, however different importance might be assigned to different values over time.
If the relative importance of ethnic identity is raised then this can be described as mobilization.
Our model will consider technical progress that enables increased contact among the groups, the position of a group in the society, nd the leadership role that is involved.
ix.
If increased mobilization evolves into an action it will depend on different factors such as a societal climate for change, or the leadership of ethnic entrepreneurs resulting from available resources, external influences, and other high-profile triggering events, etc.
x.
Action depends not only on the characterization of the initial group but on the opposite side as well, this is especially true concerning the level of democracy, with transitional states being most conflict-prone, as well as the level of previous violence, which increases the probability of violent response.
xi.
Key components are as follows: - Political issues: bilateral issues in different areas, refugees, territorial and resource claims, support for separatist movements, government ideology, human rights, military involvement, political crime.
- Economic Factors: energy, food, strategic resources, differences between south and north.
- Ethnic Relationship: racial attitude, religion, culture.
- Defense Capabilities: degree of militarization, weapons, mobilization potential.
xii.
Ethnic, Economic and Political Differences will lead to stronger group actions.
Moreover democracy will negatively influence the action planned by different groups.
Successful actions will usually influence better self perception of a group.
Furthermore ethnic differences will help each group develop its own identity.
In the case a group being considered a nation (e.
g.
Balkan Wars) the boundaries between nations would lead to stronger government support and the furthering of group mobilization.
3.
Pre conflict phase: Case Study of Western Balkans xiii.
The framework described matches experiences with conflicts in the ex-Yugoslavia.
Its six republics were bounded by historical and ethnic reasons.
Before 1991 Yugoslavia was under communist rule by President Tito.
In 1990 Tito died, the economic situation deteriorated, the Soviet block democratized, and Milosevic became party chief in Serbia.
Independence then became the political goal for Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia.
xiv.
Western Balkans Background: - Multiple ethnic conflicts in Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia, etc.
- Political and Economic Instability (Transition Economies) - Multiple Strategies by different international organizations 4.
Conflict Phase xv.
It is important to track the dynamics of conflict.
Moreover the coordination of different sets of players is crucial.
xvi.
The model will describe internal and external influences and also their interconnections.
To illustrate the theory of lateral pressure will be used in international relationships.
This theory defines that internal sources of conflict leads to potentials for external conflict and that this further depends on the population, level of technology, and access to resources.
xvii.
In our model we see that resources have a positive influence on military actions and military action has a negative influence on the amount of resources.
SDM will help in understanding possible and probable outcomes of conflict situations and will help in preventing unintended consequences uncovering hidden dynamics drive pre conflict dynamics in shaping the conflict phase.
xviii.
Furthermore a hypothesis is represented that when resources decline while providing the population technological growth the result is an increase in the level of internal pressure.
Sustained stress will lead to violence and moreover impacts the preliminary reasons for conflict.
In addition increases in both technology and population influences external pressure and will therefore cause international conflict.
xix.
Then further assumptions are marked.
We see that an increase in technology and population will have a positive influence on GDP.
GDP will then influence the military budget and this will usually lead to higher military spending and military action.
When resources are limited international conflict and violence will lead to a lower labor force and worsening technology and result in a decline in the GDP.
It is evident that this system is stable no matter the suffering of the population, and that the causes of each war are catastrophic.
We must then conclude that military intervention would have a negative influence on GDP and that military action is necessary in the short term perspective.
5.
Intervention of International Organizations in the Western Balkans and the Rationale Behind Military Action xx.
Classical Mechanisms of International Organizations: Structure a framework in which incentives for cooperation will outweigh the benefits from violent actions and confrontations.
In this instance we will use Schneckener's approach that is driven by a distinction between acceptable and unacceptable policies aimed at settling ethnic conflicts.
Elimination strategies comprise genocide, ethnic cleansing, and forced assimilation; control regimes include coercive domination, co-opted rule, and limited self-rule.
Besides the unacceptable policies there are policies of recognition.
Elimination Control Recognition Genocide/ ethnocide Ethnic cleansing Forced assimilation Coercive domination Co-opted rule Limited self-rule Domestic and international minority rights regimes (MRR) Integrative/consociation power-sharing (PS) Territorial solutions (TS) Bi-/Multilateral regimes (BMR) xxi.
International Organizations used the following approaches in Western Balkans MRR PS TS BMR Dayton - Bosnia, Kosovo UNSCR 1244, Macedonia Ohrid Agreement xxii.
International Organizations have been successful in the long run because they have used recognition strategies.
In system dynamics terms this would imply: - a higher level of democracy - lower political differences - lower economic differences (financial aid) xxiii.
However the main question remains whether they would be successful with the NATO interventions in 1995 and especially in 1999.
The Model presentedis a straightforward reply to this question.
6.
Conclusion xxiv.
We have shown that recognition strategies can be successful in the long term.
However there is still a need for military intervention providing that civil rights are not respected and people are suffering in order to secure a short term prospect of situational well being.
Introduction i.
Conflict situations are situations of dynamic complexity.
In order to solve the problem we will focus on understanding and representing the dynamics of a system.
We will describe interactions among social structures and review processes in complex situations utilizing system dynamics.
We will use causal loops identifying main elements and their interconnections focusing on feedback loops that will help explain system behavior.
ii.
The main purpose of this article is to express as straightforwardly as possible a few key ideas and therefore bring forth more clearly the logic of reasoning, and in particular the assumptions being made concerning the interdependence of social networks and furthermore to exploit the possibilities of the application of system thinking and system dynamics in order to prevent military interventions.
In addition we will question the rationale behind military intervention in the Western Balkans.
iii.
A growing number of international conflicts represent a major challenge to international organizations.
The track record of international community interventions shows that it is necessary to use additional analytical tools to apply different strategies for conflict solving; system dynamics and system thinking.
iv.
Resistance to System Thinking in Conflict Situations is well known: Usually key players in conflicts situations are resistant to system thinking.
The introduction of System Dynamics involves the overcoming of these resistances.
v.
System Dynamics will contribute in increasing the awareness needed to deal with conflict in deal making.
vi.
In order to understand international conflicts in it is important to understand that each conflict is a two stage process consisting of: The Pre-conflict Phase - The interrelationship among actors in a group.
These same actors develop and later on are referred to as opponents.
This model will describe group dynamics and the process from group mobilization to group action.
The Conflict Phase: Once the groups are in action there are different constraints that arise such as internal support, resources and availability of resources, military action, and international military action.
2.
The Pre-conflict Phase vii.
Ethnic Conflicts: Max Weber states that ethnic groups are those human groups that entertain a subjective belief in their common descent...
[which] must be important for the propagation of group formation's.
Group differences then produce different social dynamic patterns.
If this would escalate then we would describe this is an ethnic conflict.
viii.
We will assume that ethnic identity is not changed often, however different importance might be assigned to different values over time.
If the relative importance of ethnic identity is raised then this can be described as mobilization.
Our model will consider technical progress that enables increased contact among the groups, the position of a group in the society, nd the leadership role that is involved.
ix.
If increased mobilization evolves into an action it will depend on different factors such as a societal climate for change, or the leadership of ethnic entrepreneurs resulting from available resources, external influences, and other high-profile triggering events, etc.
x.
Action depends not only on the characterization of the initial group but on the opposite side as well, this is especially true concerning the level of democracy, with transitional states being most conflict-prone, as well as the level of previous violence, which increases the probability of violent response.
xi.
Key components are as follows: - Political issues: bilateral issues in different areas, refugees, territorial and resource claims, support for separatist movements, government ideology, human rights, military involvement, political crime.
- Economic Factors: energy, food, strategic resources, differences between south and north.
- Ethnic Relationship: racial attitude, religion, culture.
- Defense Capabilities: degree of militarization, weapons, mobilization potential.
xii.
Ethnic, Economic and Political Differences will lead to stronger group actions.
Moreover democracy will negatively influence the action planned by different groups.
Successful actions will usually influence better self perception of a group.
Furthermore ethnic differences will help each group develop its own identity.
In the case a group being considered a nation (e.
g.
Balkan Wars) the boundaries between nations would lead to stronger government support and the furthering of group mobilization.
3.
Pre conflict phase: Case Study of Western Balkans xiii.
The framework described matches experiences with conflicts in the ex-Yugoslavia.
Its six republics were bounded by historical and ethnic reasons.
Before 1991 Yugoslavia was under communist rule by President Tito.
In 1990 Tito died, the economic situation deteriorated, the Soviet block democratized, and Milosevic became party chief in Serbia.
Independence then became the political goal for Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia.
xiv.
Western Balkans Background: - Multiple ethnic conflicts in Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia, etc.
- Political and Economic Instability (Transition Economies) - Multiple Strategies by different international organizations 4.
Conflict Phase xv.
It is important to track the dynamics of conflict.
Moreover the coordination of different sets of players is crucial.
xvi.
The model will describe internal and external influences and also their interconnections.
To illustrate the theory of lateral pressure will be used in international relationships.
This theory defines that internal sources of conflict leads to potentials for external conflict and that this further depends on the population, level of technology, and access to resources.
xvii.
In our model we see that resources have a positive influence on military actions and military action has a negative influence on the amount of resources.
SDM will help in understanding possible and probable outcomes of conflict situations and will help in preventing unintended consequences uncovering hidden dynamics drive pre conflict dynamics in shaping the conflict phase.
xviii.
Furthermore a hypothesis is represented that when resources decline while providing the population technological growth the result is an increase in the level of internal pressure.
Sustained stress will lead to violence and moreover impacts the preliminary reasons for conflict.
In addition increases in both technology and population influences external pressure and will therefore cause international conflict.
xix.
Then further assumptions are marked.
We see that an increase in technology and population will have a positive influence on GDP.
GDP will then influence the military budget and this will usually lead to higher military spending and military action.
When resources are limited international conflict and violence will lead to a lower labor force and worsening technology and result in a decline in the GDP.
It is evident that this system is stable no matter the suffering of the population, and that the causes of each war are catastrophic.
We must then conclude that military intervention would have a negative influence on GDP and that military action is necessary in the short term perspective.
5.
Intervention of International Organizations in the Western Balkans and the Rationale Behind Military Action xx.
Classical Mechanisms of International Organizations: Structure a framework in which incentives for cooperation will outweigh the benefits from violent actions and confrontations.
In this instance we will use Schneckener's approach that is driven by a distinction between acceptable and unacceptable policies aimed at settling ethnic conflicts.
Elimination strategies comprise genocide, ethnic cleansing, and forced assimilation; control regimes include coercive domination, co-opted rule, and limited self-rule.
Besides the unacceptable policies there are policies of recognition.
Elimination Control Recognition Genocide/ ethnocide Ethnic cleansing Forced assimilation Coercive domination Co-opted rule Limited self-rule Domestic and international minority rights regimes (MRR) Integrative/consociation power-sharing (PS) Territorial solutions (TS) Bi-/Multilateral regimes (BMR) xxi.
International Organizations used the following approaches in Western Balkans MRR PS TS BMR Dayton - Bosnia, Kosovo UNSCR 1244, Macedonia Ohrid Agreement xxii.
International Organizations have been successful in the long run because they have used recognition strategies.
In system dynamics terms this would imply: - a higher level of democracy - lower political differences - lower economic differences (financial aid) xxiii.
However the main question remains whether they would be successful with the NATO interventions in 1995 and especially in 1999.
The Model presentedis a straightforward reply to this question.
6.
Conclusion xxiv.
We have shown that recognition strategies can be successful in the long term.
However there is still a need for military intervention providing that civil rights are not respected and people are suffering in order to secure a short term prospect of situational well being.
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