Switching Surfaces from Turf to Dirt a Horse Racing Handicapping Angle
One of the handicapping situations a horse player often faces is a horse that has been racing on dirt that is now switching to turf racing. This is one of those times that points out just how complex horse racing is and how difficult it is to make decisions. What usually happens to a handicapper is that he or she eventually comes to conclusion that rather than making an assessment of every factor, it is better to look for spot plays because it is just too difficult to quantify all the nuances of a horse race.
Let's look at this one situation for an example. Let's say a three year old horse is trying the grass for the first time. It has never run on turf and now it is in an allowance race against others who have raced on the grass. How can a prognosticator forecast how this horse will race?
The first place to start is with the breeding. Checking the sire and dam's sire will help and it also may help to see if the dam has any other foals who won on the turf. Pedigree is a huge consideration when handicapping a horse racing first time on the grass. It is not, however, the only consideration, because horses only do what the jockey and trainer want them to do.
Therefore, the next step is to check the connections, the trainer and jockey. Does the trainer win with horses going first time on the grass? Many trainers will give a horse a race over the grass just to get used to the surface. Like trainers who give a maiden a first race just to get acclimated to racing some will not go for the win in the first grass race, even if the horse has good turf breeding. Seeing that the runner has a pedigree that suggests an affinity for the grass is therefore not enough, the connections must also be planning on going for the win.
That leads us to the jockey. There are times when the choice of rider by the trainer can indicate his or her intentions. For instance, was the jockey in the last race one of the trainer's go-to jockeys? If so, has that rider stayed on the mount? If not, that may be a sign that the horse isn't going to be sent for the win. On the other hand, a switch to a better jockey or a go-to rider may indicate that they are serious about winning first time on grass.
As you can see, one simple change in a horse race can have many implications and that is why horse racing handicapping is so difficult and requires a systematic approach.
Let's look at this one situation for an example. Let's say a three year old horse is trying the grass for the first time. It has never run on turf and now it is in an allowance race against others who have raced on the grass. How can a prognosticator forecast how this horse will race?
The first place to start is with the breeding. Checking the sire and dam's sire will help and it also may help to see if the dam has any other foals who won on the turf. Pedigree is a huge consideration when handicapping a horse racing first time on the grass. It is not, however, the only consideration, because horses only do what the jockey and trainer want them to do.
Therefore, the next step is to check the connections, the trainer and jockey. Does the trainer win with horses going first time on the grass? Many trainers will give a horse a race over the grass just to get used to the surface. Like trainers who give a maiden a first race just to get acclimated to racing some will not go for the win in the first grass race, even if the horse has good turf breeding. Seeing that the runner has a pedigree that suggests an affinity for the grass is therefore not enough, the connections must also be planning on going for the win.
That leads us to the jockey. There are times when the choice of rider by the trainer can indicate his or her intentions. For instance, was the jockey in the last race one of the trainer's go-to jockeys? If so, has that rider stayed on the mount? If not, that may be a sign that the horse isn't going to be sent for the win. On the other hand, a switch to a better jockey or a go-to rider may indicate that they are serious about winning first time on grass.
As you can see, one simple change in a horse race can have many implications and that is why horse racing handicapping is so difficult and requires a systematic approach.
Source...